Understanding Anocracy in America

How to Promote Democracy

Talk of civil war and the increasing willingness of people to use violence for political change are all things that we don’t want to think about. However, there are ways to move us away from the ledge. The first step is to understand what is causing this instability. The second is to take counter measures.

Professor Barbara Walter, a political scientist at the University of California San Diego, has spent her career studying civil wars. She participated in a 2017 CIA political instability task force.  The purpose of the task force was to predict civil wars. This was of special interest because among the 240 civil wars that have happened since 1946, half of them have occurred since 2001. The task force created what they called The Watch List, which was prepared for the White House. The CIA did not study the United States or its citizens since it is prohibited from doing that by law. However, Walter, a private citizen could do this.

The task force was made up of experts and data analysts. After a rigorous empirical analysis of the data in terms of 13 key factors, only two factors could predict civil war. They are:

Anocracy – when a government is democratic and autocratic. In other words, there are elections, but the winners are free to do what they want. Hungary has elections but President Orban can imprison his opponents and prevent other parties from using the media to campaign.

Identity Parties - political parties based on “Identity” as opposed to “Ideology.” People do not form these parties around ideologies such as capitalism or communism. The parties are based on ethnic identity.

According to Walter, democracy in America has been downgraded three times since 2016. International observers ruled that the 2016 election had been free but not entirely fair due to Russian meddling and spreading disinformation in the media to favor Donald Trump. It was downgraded in 2019 when the government refused to give information to Congress. In December 2020, our government became an anocracy because of the unchecked actions of the Trump administration. The January 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol should not have been a surprise.

Civil wars, according to Walter, are not caused by the oppressed but by those who have the most to lose or by those who are being displaced. In the Bosnian civil war, Serbs who had been the dominant group in the former Yugoslavia began to lose power as the country democratized. Sunni Moslems in Iraq lost their position of power with the defeat of Saddam Hussein. Both groups started civil wars.

In a country like the United States, which is undergoing a massive demographic change, white men are losing their dominance to groups who are not from the north Atlantic. Global economics has disadvantaged white rural communities and the working class. Their positions of power and influence – their opportunities and advantage – are being threatened by people of color. They are also socially and economically disadvantaged by more educated high-income groups and global business enterprises. The rise of white militias and white Christian nationalism should not be a surprise.

In my own view, the social stress comes not only from cultural changes brought about by the shift in ethnic groups. Social class differences are key. White elites – the better educated and socially secure in the upper middle class – have left their ethnic counterparts in the rural areas behind.

This demographic change is not unique to the United States. It is occurring in all English-speaking countries, including Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, according to Walter. There are ways to avoid this instability. Walter does talk about the need for government reform and an emphasis on the rule of law. She also advocates changing social media algorithms which promote polarization, hate speech, and social dysfunction. The answer is not censorship.  The other is for more civic engagement. In her interviews with people about civil war in their countries, they were so caught up in their individual lives that they did not see it coming. They were not engaged socially or politically.

Stepping Away from Anocracy

I do see signs of hope. The rule of law is at work in the prosecution of former President Trump and his associates for their attempt to overthrow the results of the 2020 election. This is a move back toward democracy from anocracy. The other step away from anocracy has been the return to traditional norms of the self-imposed limits by the president and executive branch that were previously observed by both parties.

Stepping Back from Ethnic Identity Parties

President Biden’s support for labor unions and his passage of massive construction projects and high-speed internet for rural areas have the potential to alleviate the suffering of rural and previously industrial areas. Large investments in clean energy technology and the return of manufacturing can also revitalize the social position of white people in a more diverse society.

The Rapids Ahead

We have certainly not left the white water behind. We can see anocracy at work in the daily new cycle. A small group of rightist members of the House of Representatives – the Freedom Caucus – who deny that the 2020 election was legitimate, have paralyzed the government by toppling the Speaker of the House and almost succeeding in closing down the government. Key funding bills for military aid to Ukraine and Israel are being held hostage to a crackdown on immigration and on those seeking political asylum. Freshman Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, a winning football coach, is holding up over 350 military promotions and weakening the armed forces according to the Pentagon and national defense experts.. This behavior was inconceivable in the past. These Senate confirmations usually receive routine bi-partisan approval. Tuberville disapproves of a military policy which will pay for service members in states which prohibit abortion to travel for an abortion to states where the procedure is legal. Tuberville is holding military promotions hostage to try to force a change in this policy. This is a classic example of anocracy.

Former President Trump has a lock on the presidential nomination for the 2024 election and is running slightly ahead of President Biden in the polls despite being indicted in four major felony trials.

Donald Trump’s recent statements about his plans for a second term are all about anocracy. He plans vengeance on his opponents. In an appalling November 11, 2023, Veteran’s Day speech Trump echoed Hitler:

“Today, especially in honor of our great veterans on Veterans Day, we pledge to you that we will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat on elections,” Trump said in the closing moments of his speech, repeating his false claims the 2020 election was stolen.

“The real threat is not from the radical right. The real threat is from the radical left and it's growing every day, every single day,” he continued. “The threat from outside forces is far less sinister, dangerous, and grave than the threat from within. Our threat is from within.”

These are the words of man who has the solid support of one third of the country and enough additional support to tip the 2024 election in his favor in the Electoral College, even though he will probably lose the popular vote. Despite four criminal indictments, Trump’s core support is holding strong. He continues to inflame white ethnic and religious grievances. Millions of people have been left behind or those who fear the rise of people of color are convinced that Trump alone can save them, their culture, and their way of life.

Promoting Democracy

Understanding social dynamics is the key to finding a way through perilous times. Key concepts like “anocracy” clarify what is going on. Generally, we wouldn’t normally think that autocracy and democracy can be blended into one lived reality. However, the term anocracy can shift our framework for constructing a new reality, new insights, and new perspectives.

Ultimately, using data science to show us the deeper dynamics of unrest also leads us to harness those social and cultural stresses to navigate rapids. At a minimum, we learn that we are on a river with a lot of water moving very quickly. It helps us get out of simplistic left / right dichotomies and realize that we are prisoners of our media echo chambers. The value of social science insight into civic turbulence is that we can learn how to harness it. We can chart a course that goes beyond MSNBC, CNN, or Fox News. We can see these major influences as cultural creations made by people which in turn shape the people who made them.

There a Two Big Takeaways.

We need to foster a common identity as Americans. It has always been something white and northeastern but also something common across all ethnic groups. It is a living ambiguity, but it can be shifted to something more inclusive. For conservatives that is meritocracy. For liberals it is a level playing field. Each is fundamentally American. The first step is to listen deeply to the people with whom we disagree and to forge or renew relationships. Blocking people on social media or severing relationships does not move us forward as a society of communication and comprehension. The goal should not be commanding their conversion but comprehending them. We must maintain the very basic fabric of democracy which are relationships across differences. It takes restraint, listening, and validating their concerns. It is a basic principle of behavioral science. We must model the behavior that we want to see. No one wins a debate, but people can enjoy sharing a cake. We cannot let our fear lead us. Our concern for those on the “other“ side must lead us to not see them as the other.

The second takeaway is that in two and half years we have begun to swing away from anocracy. Addressing the needs of the white working class is underway and understanding class structure among whites is pivotal. Younger evangelical Christians are also shifting away from their parents’ views and are conceiving of a world which is not win lose. The Koch Brothers are shifting their funding and influence networks away from Trump.  

American politics have always been messy. The American Experiment has many twists and turns. It will only be lost if we give up.

You know the drill.

Become involved. Avoid doom scrolling. Be neighborly without being a busy body. Help at the food bank. Prepare food for the homeless. Work on community programs to help those with addictions. Worship together. Be compassionate not condescending. Become involved in school boards. Support your library. Get more pay for your teachers. Get better pay and benefits for military families. Be good to each other and easy on yourself. Above all, register and vote and encourage others to vote.

Our only enemy is despair. As Americans we have a common identity. We are known around the world as a “can do” people. Let’s do it!

See Professor Walter’s TED Talk.

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