Arithmetic in Gaza
The Brutal Calculus of Immorality
Caiaphas who was high priest that year said. “You don't realize that it is better for you to have one man die for the people than to have the whole nation destroyed.”
- John 11: 49-50
It took two years for Abraham Lincoln to find Ulysses Grant, a commanding general who would fight despite the deaths he knew must come: who could “face the arithmetic” and accept the hard necessity of great death before the issue could be decided and the Union saved.
What is the arithmetic in Gaza? Is the Israeli invasion a response to the Oct. 7 massacres a necessary evil. Or just an evil?
- Excerpts from “The Grim Arithmetic of a Just War” - Lance Morrow in the Wall Street Journal, Friday May 3, 2024
Morrow’s arithmetic primer on the death of millions for a particular “good outcome” expresses the amoral ambivalence of the end justifying the means. This is the moral justification of the unjustifiable. Morrow is honest about his ambivalence and cites the bombing of Hiroshima, as “a sort of good evil.”
In the case of Hamas and Israel, Morrow has little to no ambivalence regarding Pro-Palestinian demonstrators. His argument is that Israel has a right to defend itself or it will cease to exist. It is a just war.
One of the main tenets of a just war theory is that the self defense response be limited to a proportional response. In a strict “eye for an eye” (lex talionis) calculus, 3,000 massacred Israelis would mean 3,000 dead Palestinians not 30,000 or 40,000 who are mainly women and children. Contrary to international law and moral philosophy, Morrow and many others imply that such steps are necessary even if it means the starvation of 2 million people.
Taken as a snapshot in time and ripped out of its century-long context, the view is that peace-loving Israel is a force for good in the region and its citizens were killed in an unprovoked attack in horrendous ways and 240 hostages were taken. Despite its amazingly good intelligence network, Israel was taken by surprise. The only remedy is to destroy Hamas by any means necessary.
That’s clear. So why the protests? Why is President Biden being called “Genocide Joe?” Why are students supposedly joining the forces of antisemitism that launched the Holocaust?
Taking a step back shows a much more complex picture. Israelis have been divided on the embargo of Gaza and the occupation to the West Bank. Netanyahu strengthened Hamas to offset the Palestinian Liberation Organization in order to divide the Palestinians, with one government in Gaza and another in the West Bank. Israeli settlers in the West Bank have committed atrocities. Palestinian militants have committed their own reciprocal atrocities. In a broader regional view, Iran and its proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen are trying to offset the power of Saudi Arabia, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia are taking advantage of Israel’s long range military capabilities to counter Iran.
The conflict is not between nation states with conventional armies like World War II or even Russia and Ukraine. This is a war between social and political movements, with missiles, drones and cyber weapons. The situation is not unlike the Vietnam of the pre-digital era. Eradicating Hamas would not be the solution, even if it were possible. Every day, thousands of young Arabs are being radicalized. Every day, Israel squanders more of its political and moral capital at a time when right wing authoritarian groups and governments around the world espouse antisemitism and the destruction of Israel and the Jewish people.
At this point a ceasefire is not in the interests of either party. For Israel’s right wing and its War Cabinet, it would be tantamount to defeat, even if the hostages were released. Hamas is pressing its advantage and its growing stature in the world community. Even a ceasefire could work to its disadvantage, despite the possible release of Palestinian prisoners, since it would make Israel seem more reasonable in the eyes of the world and boost the profile of the United States in the region while speeding the signing of an alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
If nothing else, this brutal conflict shows the inadequacy and moral bankruptcy of a just war theory in which there could be some justifiable - if inhuman - calculus. It is the arithmetic of the Grim Reaper.
American protestors are bringing the war home in an election year. America’s liberal youth are now becoming Israel skeptics, pro-Arab, and pro-Muslim in an effort to call attention to Gaza and to prevent another holocaust. The grim arithmetic of American College campuses has already toppled the presidents of Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania. Universities are meeting the demands of peaceful protestors with police and escalating violence. Parents are outraged at the loss of class time as they see their $100,000 a year investments jeopardized. Commencement ceremonies are being downsized and dispersed.
Hope is on the horizon. President Biden needs to have a ceasefire almost immediately as he goes into the election. A ceasefire or better a cessation of all hostilities would mollify Biden’s left wing, young voters, and Arab Americans in Michigan and Wisconsin which are key to a Democratic Party victory. While Biden might not lose these votes outright, considering that Trump would be the alternative, Biden’s second term would be hobbled and his position on the world stage would be compromised.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates - the anti-Iranian coalition - would begin looking to Turkey. Iran’s proxies would be strengthened and could continue to threaten international trade through the Red Sea and on to the Suez Canal by harassing the US Navy in the strait of Bab el Mandeb between Yemen and Djibouti. Turkey = a member of NATO, has already announced that it will block trade with Israel until Gaza receives adequate amounts of humanitarian aid.
President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken have been blunt in public with Netanyahu and his War Cabinet. The United States opposes Israel’s planned attack on Rafah in southern Gaza near the Egyptian border where over a million Palestinians have taken refuge at Israel’s command to abandon the north for their own safety. Israel sees this as the last stronghold of Hamas. However, the United States has called it a red line. Egypt is adamantly opposed to such an attack, since it would cause a crisis on its border. Secretary Blinken has spoken openly about an independent Palestinian state which would push back Israel’s military gains and end its occupation.
Killing or starving hundreds of thousands of women and children as the price of defeating Hamas is a horrendous calculus which even those who rationalize Hiroshima and Nagasaki would have trouble condoning. This Palestinian holocaust would bring Israel’s standing and long term viability into question. Israel’s self-defense in this fashion will only make it more insecure and isolated from its allies.
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I found this piece after hours digging into Lance Morrow's previous work on the concept of "evil" (it's a long story, but my podcast includes a component looking at Time Magazine issues from 1990-91 and he had a cover story in June of that year exploring the topic). It's chilling to consider that the man could spend a lifetime pondering and pontificating about violence and the foolish justifications for it, only to conclude at the end of that lifetime - he died 6 months later - that massacring children was justified for largely abstract moralistic goals. I'm glad I found your voice of reason at the end of this tunnel.
The Arithmetic of the Grim Reaper... This one kept me up at night. History is replete of massacre after massacre for whatever reason. Human Life has no meaning in these situations. I applaud the students who are protesting the killing in Gaza but not their violent protests. Sudan is suffering from a major famine and thousands of children will die and no one seems to care via the news. Why are we so cruel to each other and indifferent on a global scale and yet we worry about abandoned animals? Is our DNA so structured that we are nothing more than a sophisticated primate that tends to want to control everything? Although you mention that there is hope with certain political negotiations, how about all the people who have died to get to this point? I am sure that eventually a memorial will be erected and the world will go on its merry way. They say it will take 13 years to rebuild Gaza and in the meantime? What about the people who have suffered and died through this war? Man's inhumanity to man. !!! (Your presentation was superb.. )