Alternate Universes Found in Mexico
Claudia Sheinbaum Mexico's First Woman President Manages Two Realities
After speaking with friends and family who live in Mexico and listening to the stories of refugees, asylum seekers, and the undocumented, much of the news coverage about the election of Mexico’s first woman president Claudia Sheinbaum seemed surreal. It is often convenient to think of Mexico as a tourist destination. However, it is a very large and dynamic country. It also has two parallel universes.
According to Al Jazeera, Mexico is also the largest US trading partner. In 2023 the United States bought $798 billion in goods from Mexico surpassing Canada and China. Elon Musk is building his largest Tesla plant in the city of Monterrey, Mexico’s manufacturing, tech, and finance hub. In late 2022, Mexico’s Economics Minister Raquel Buenrostro announced that 400 companies were interested in moving from Asia to Mexico. The US has concerns about its dependence on China and there have also been supply chain disruptions during the pandemic. Mexico provides a less expensive setting for manufacturing but has close proximity to US markets. this process is called nearshoring. Despite their public’s ignorance of each due to major differences of language and culture, other both countries are linked at the hip even as millions of migrants test the border wall.
Claudia Sheinbaum was elected the first woman president of Mexico on June 3, 2024. The granddaughter of Jewish immigrants from Europe, Ms Sheinbaum holds a doctorate in environmental science from UC Berkeley and is also the former mayor of Mexico City which has 22,505,000 inhabitants. During her tenure she introduced many low carbon changes in public transportation and renewable energy in one of the world’s most congested mega-cities. The result was a drop in air pollution, more jobs, and a bost in the economy. Sheinbaum is also the protege of the outgoing president Manuel Lopez Obrador and now the leader of the leftist Morena Regeneración Nacional Party known as Morena but many expect López Obrador to rule from his ranch in southern Mexico.
Morena is the largest party in Mexico and favors social programs, protecting the environment, and improving the status of women while also supporting the Mexican oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos or Pemex and broader petrochemical business interests. Sheinbaum is committed to continuing the the policies of her mentor which included dealing with the cartels “con abrazos no balazos” - with hugs not bullets.
The news opens a split screen of alternate universes in Mexico. In one universe we see a solid Mexican economy with good performance as it recovers from the COVID 19 pandemic. The other universe is the onslaught of violence from organized crime, international drug cartels and human trafficking along with increasing rates of femicide.
It is a split screen showing the walled enclaves of the wealthy and the slums of the poor.
According to official statistics, 1,890 individuals were killed last year in confrontations between the powerful cartels. Since 2006, the year a controversial military operation against drug cartels was launched, more than 450,000 individuals have been killed, with another 100,000 missing.
The current campaign season has also seen candidates attacked during campaign appearances. Various sources put the number of murdered candidates at between 25 and 37, with some killed in broad daylight. Another 80 non-fatal attacks have taken place in the week leading up to the election.
DW News - Broadcast by German state owned Deutsche Welle - June 3, 2024
A dispassionate economic analysis argues that Mexico has been more economically stable that other countries in Latin America. The financial markets are okay with the “balance of risks.”
Some economists2 argue that this slow pace of growth is the price to pay for macroeconomic stability. Over this period, Mexico has avoided any major internal economic crises, and its economic indicators—like inflation and public finance balances—have been less volatile than in other Latin American countries. In particular, the strong appreciation of the peso since 2022 is a sign that financial markets are comfortable with the balance of risks offered by the Mexican economy compared to other emerging economies.
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Deloitte estimates Mexico’s GDP will grow 2.2% in 2024, then at a 2.1% average rate annually from 2025 to 2030, continuing down the country’s current macroeconomic direction. The trend does not necessarily point to a nearshoring-driven boom, but neither does it reflect a fiscal crisis endangering stability.
Deloitte.com Insights - Mexico Economic Outlook May 2024
Why did President Manuel López Obrador take such a lenient position on the cartels and organized crime? According to the PBS News Hour (March 22, 2024) López Obrador and his predecessor Enrique Peña Nieto pursued a Mexico First policy that saw the drug problem as an American problem. Drug consumption has not risen significantly in Mexico. Also, the cartels and organized crime provide jobs and economic investment in areas under their control which include major portions of key states. They derive their revenue from extorting large and small businesses including street vendors. Those who don’t pay up are killed. They kill truck and bus drivers who refuse to act as look outs. Overall, the take over of key sectors of the economy has led to spiraling violence and significant price increases. Organized crime has become a social institution.
Security was a top concern for Mexican voters in Sunday’s election. The six cities with the highest homicide rates in the world are in Mexico, security experts say. Gangs run U.S.-bound drug-trafficking routes and extort businesses, a major obstacle for growth and investment, business groups say.
More than 550 political candidates requested protection from the federal government ahead of the vote because of threats, rampant crime and the territorial expansion of organized-crime groups aiming to control roads, local markets and procurement contracts essential for their business. More than 200 candidates running for local office, public officials and political-party activists have been killed since September, when the election process kicked off.
Wall Street Journal - Head Winds Await Mexico’s First Female Leader -June 3, 2024
Right now there is a curious symbiosis between the Mexican State and organized crime which is practically a state unto itself. On the one hand, the government is largely powerless to combat organized crime because the cartels and other organized crime organizations are deeply interwoven into the fabric of daily living. Morena’s approach under López Obrador which is likely to be continued by Sheinbaum is to improve social programs and economic opportunities to prevent crime. Despite Morena’s lack of significant efforts against organized crime, López Obrador has the support over 60% of the people.
It might be said that the Mexican State and the parallel state of organized crime are parallel universes that are synergistic with multiple portals and worm holes. In its own way Mexico’s historic comfort with bribery and corruption has led to this state of affairs. However, there is also friction between these parallel universes caused by those who attempt to bring a better life and to stop living in such a duality. However, they are caught between the oligarchy of the legally rich and the oligarchy of illegally rich. Sometimes, it is hard to tell one from the other.
Unlike the United States, Mexico is an ancient civilization - actually - a combination of ancient societies which can only be appreciated after you have visited and read history. It is now a collection of mega-cities with vibrant arts, culture, and technical innovations. Mexico has its own technology hubs, laboratories, and world class universities. It’s literature, music, and digital arts are global phenomena
Mexico is a very complex and vibrant country in both of its alternate universes. The clear separation between government and criminal enterprise in the US makes it hard for Norteamericanos to comprehend Mexico. However, it is not that different from many other countries in the developing world which are kleptocracies and thriving centers of trade. One of the advantages to this dual universe in Mexico is that it provides tangible economic benefit for Mexico in dealing with international business interests but it also protects Mexico from undue US influence. In some respects it is the long continuation of the mutual embrace and rejection that characterizes US Mexico relations.
Aztec civilization was known for its twin gods. Perhaps that is what Mexico has become and what the US needs to know about its vecino desconocido - unknown neighbor - to which it is so closely linked.